Financial Model · V79
DFMA-pipe-fab-financial-v79.xlsx
26 sheets · 31,468 formulas · zero errors · audited 2026-06-11
Phoenix · Hyperscale Data Center Fabrication
Path to $1B Enterprise Value
Specialty pipe and modular skid assembly serving hyperscale data centers. Two phases, one operating company — Phase 1 pipe shop live today, Phase 2 skid integration standing up M13 with zero incremental CapEx.
Year 5 Combined Revenue
$345.0M
Phase 1 $195M + Phase 2 $150M
Year 5 Combined EBITDA
$98.5M
28.5% blended margin
Base-Case Enterprise Value
$1.18B
Strategic buyer · 12.0× Y5 EBITDA
Section 1
Phase 1 — Pipe Shop
Carbon and stainless pipe fabrication for hyperscale data center mechanical systems. Robotic welding (Novarc), DI-based throughput model, day crew reaches 80 direct welders by M19. Live operating business with revenue today.
| Metric | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | 5Y Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.8M | $63.5M | $167.1M | $181.1M | $195.0M | $616.5M |
| Cost of Revenue | $5.1M | $25.6M | $64.7M | $67.6M | $70.5M | $233.5M |
| Gross Margin | $3.7M | $31.6M | $85.8M | $95.4M | $105.0M | $321.4M |
| Operating Expenses | $7.2M | $20.9M | $35.0M | $37.2M | $39.5M | $139.8M |
| EBITDA | ($2.8M) | $13.0M | $53.1M | $60.5M | $67.9M | $191.6M |
| EBITDA % | (28.6%) | 20.5% | 31.8% | 33.4% | 34.8% | 31.1% |
| Net Profit | ($3.8M) | $8.4M | $42.1M | $48.5M | $54.9M | $150.0M |
Section 2
Phase 2 — Skid Assembly
DFMA self-performs pipe install + equipment mounting (CDUs, pumps, valves, isolation) + drip pans on integrated modular skids. Structural steel and electrical scope subbed to strategic partners. M13 standup, $0 incremental CapEx — rides Phase 1 capital base.
DFMA · Self-Perform
Skid Assembly
Y5 Revenue · $100M
Y5 EBITDA · $25.0M (25%)
Pipe install + equipment mounting (CDUs, pumps, valves) + drip pan fabrication. Highest-margin scope · direct extension of Phase 1 capability.
Z Modular · Subcontract
Structural Steel
Y5 Revenue · $30M
Y5 EBITDA · $3.6M (12%)
All structural racks and skid frames. DFMA bills the integrated package, Z Modular as sub. Steady markup on subbed scope.
B&D Electric · Subcontract
Empty Conduits
Y5 Revenue · $20M
Y5 EBITDA · $2.0M (10%)
Conduit infrastructure on skids only — wire-pull and panels in separate scope outside Phase 2. Light markup on subbed scope.
| Metric | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | 5Y Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0 | $15.0M | $60.0M | $115.0M | $150.0M | $340.0M |
| EBITDA % | — | (8.0%) | 6.0% | 15.5% | 20.4% | 14.9% |
| EBITDA | $0 | ($1.2M) | $3.6M | $17.8M | $30.6M | $50.8M |
| Net Profit | $0 | ($1.2M) | $3.1M | $15.2M | $26.0M | $43.0M |
Section 3
Combined Business
Consolidated DFMA across both phases. Phase 1 generates the cash flow that funds Phase 2 working capital — no outside capital required for Phase 2 standup.
| Metric | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | 5Y Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Combined Revenue | $9.8M | $78.5M | $227.1M | $296.1M | $345.0M | $956.5M |
| Combined EBITDA | ($2.8M) | $11.8M | $56.7M | $78.3M | $98.5M | $242.5M |
| Combined EBITDA % | (28.6%) | 15.0% | 25.0% | 26.5% | 28.5% | 25.3% |
| Combined Net Profit | ($3.8M) | $7.2M | $45.2M | $63.6M | $80.9M | $193.0M |
Section 4
$1B Valuation Bridge
Y5 EBITDA × strategic multiple. Base case anchors on combined business at 12.0× — defensible vs Comfort Systems / Quanta comp range and conservative on multiple given DC scarcity premium.
| Scenario | Y5 EBITDA | Multiple | Implied EV | vs $1B |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase 1 only · Premium | $67.9M | 14.7× | $998M | ($2M) |
| Phase 1 only · Strategic | $67.9M | 12.0× | $814M | ($186M) |
| Combined · Public comp | $98.5M | 9.6× | $945M | ($55M) |
| Combined · Strategic buyer | $98.5M | 12.0× | $1.18B | +$182M |
| Combined · DC scarcity | $98.5M | 14.0× | $1.38B | +$378M |
| Combined +15% · Strategic | $113.2M | 12.0× | $1.36B | +$359M |
Section 5
Comparable Company Multiples
Reference multiples for the $1B bridge. DFMA's positioning — specialty pipe + modular MEP integration with data center pure-play exposure — sits between mid-band integrated MEP and specialty DC fab.
| Company / Type | Ticker | Business | EV / EBITDA | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta Services | PWR | Electrical / infrastructure | 14–17× | Premium electrical pure-play · DC + utility tailwind |
| Comfort Systems USA | FIX | MEP, modular | 11–14× | Modular MEP leader · 30%+ growth · DC exposure |
| EMCOR Group | EME | Electrical & mechanical | 10–13× | Diversified MEP · stable trade margins |
| MYR Group | MYRG | T&D electrical | 9–12× | Pure electrical · utility-tilted |
| MasTec | MTZ | Multi-trade infrastructure | 8–11× | Heavy infrastructure · pipeline & DC |
| Limbach | LMB | MEP rollup | 13–16× | Targeted acquirer · niche MEP buyer |
| Specialty DC fab (private) | — | Pipe + MEP modular | 14–22× | Recent strategic deals · scarcity premium |
| PE rollup (industrial) | — | Trade aggregation | 8–12× | Sponsor-led platform deals |
Section 6
Key Assumptions & Risk Factors
Phase 1 Capacity
Day crew reaches 80 direct welders by M19. Two-shift operations only — no third-shift built into model. DI-based throughput driven by nominal pipe size (not actual circumference).
Phase 2 CapEx
$0 incremental — DFMA scope rides Phase 1 capital base. Subs scale their own crew capacity. DFMA carries integration PMs and working capital float on receivables.
Phase 2 Margin Blend
20.4% Y5 mature: DFMA self-perform skid (25% on $100M) + Z Modular sub markup (12% on $30M) + B&D sub markup (10% on $20M).
Exit Window
Y5–Y6 strategic exit. Likely acquirers: Quanta, Comfort Systems, EMCOR, or PE rollup platform aggregating MEP trades.
Key Risk · Sub Capacity
B&D Electric and Z Modular must scale with DFMA pipeline. Pipeline conversion and sub margin pass-through are the swing variables.
Key Sensitivity
Sub margins are the swing — 2pp blend change on Phase 2 = $3M EBITDA = $36M EV at 12×. Self-perform conversion of electrical scope = $60–100M EV upside.
Section 7
Data Room
Full financial model — P&L, Cash Flow, Balance Sheet, Personnel ramp, IRR, Covenant model, Sensitivity Analysis, and 2-Phase Valuation tab. All numbers on this site live from the workbook.