DFMA Fabrication · IR Summary
Specialty pipe + modular skid · hyperscale data centers · Phoenix, AZ
Y5 Combined Rev
$345.0M
P1 $195M + P2 $150M
Y5 Combined EBITDA
$98.5M
28.5% blended
Y5 P1 EBITDA
$67.9M
34.8% margin
Y5 P2 EBITDA
$30.6M
20.4% blended
Base-case EV
$1.18B
12.0× strategic
Phase 2 CapEx
$0
M13 standup
Phase 1 · Pipe Shop
| $M | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.8 | 63.5 | 167.1 | 181.1 | 195.0 |
| Gross Margin | 3.7 | 31.6 | 85.8 | 95.4 | 105.0 |
| OpEx | 7.2 | 20.9 | 35.0 | 37.2 | 39.5 |
| EBITDA | (2.8) | 13.0 | 53.1 | 60.5 | 67.9 |
| EBITDA % | (28.6%) | 20.5% | 31.8% | 33.4% | 34.8% |
| Net Profit | (3.8) | 8.4 | 42.1 | 48.5 | 54.9 |
Phase 2 · Skid Assembly
| $M | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 15.0 | 60.0 | 115.0 | 150.0 |
| EBITDA % | — | (8.0%) | 6.0% | 15.5% | 20.4% |
| EBITDA | 0 | (1.2) | 3.6 | 17.8 | 30.6 |
| Net Profit | 0 | (1.2) | 3.1 | 15.2 | 26.0 |
| —DFMA Self-Perform | $100M · 25% EBITDA · pipe + equipment + drip pans | ||||
| —Z Modular (sub) | $30M · 12% EBITDA · structural racks/skids | ||||
| —B&D Electric (sub) | $20M · 10% EBITDA · empty conduits only | ||||
Combined · Phase 1 + Phase 2
| $M | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | 5Y Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Combined Revenue | 9.8 | 78.5 | 227.1 | 296.1 | 345.0 | 956.5 |
| Combined EBITDA | (2.8) | 11.8 | 56.7 | 78.3 | 98.5 | 242.5 |
| Combined EBITDA % | (28.6%) | 15.0% | 25.0% | 26.5% | 28.5% | 25.3% |
| Combined Net Profit | (3.8) | 7.2 | 45.2 | 63.6 | 80.9 | 193.0 |
$1B Valuation Bridge
| Scenario | EBITDA | × | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 only · Premium | $67.9M | 14.7× | $998M |
| P1 only · Strategic | $67.9M | 12.0× | $814M |
| Combined · Public | $98.5M | 9.6× | $945M |
| Combined · Strategic | $98.5M | 12.0× | $1.18B |
| Combined · DC scarcity | $98.5M | 14.0× | $1.38B |
| Combined +15% · Strat | $113.2M | 12.0× | $1.36B |
Comp Multiples
| Company | Ticker | Range |
|---|---|---|
| Quanta Services | PWR | 14–17× |
| Comfort Systems | FIX | 11–14× |
| EMCOR Group | EME | 10–13× |
| MYR Group | MYRG | 9–12× |
| MasTec | MTZ | 8–11× |
| Limbach | LMB | 13–16× |
| Specialty DC fab (priv) | — | 14–22× |
| PE rollup | — | 8–12× |
Key Assumptions & Risk Factors
Phase 1 Capacity
Day crew → 80 welders M19 · two-shift only · DI-based throughput model
Phase 2 CapEx
$0 incremental · rides P1 capital base · subs scale own crew
P2 Margin Blend
20.4% Y5: 25% self-perform + 12% Z Mod sub + 10% B&D sub
Exit Window
Y5–Y6 strategic · Quanta, Comfort, EMCOR, PE rollup
Key Risk
Sub capacity must scale with DFMA pipeline · margin pass-through
Key Sensitivity
±2pp on P2 blend = ±$3M EBITDA = ±$36M EV at 12×
License-of-Record Upside
Self-perform electrical: +$5–8M Y5 EBITDA · +$60–100M EV at 12×
Customers · Pipeline
Hyperscale primes (Holder, HITT, DPR) · Polk County · Bloom Jupiter
Financial Model · V79
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